Most current quantitative models show an optimistic trend: Bloomberg Industry Research is based on parameters such as a 40% annual growth rate of TVL (total locked value) (currently 35 million to the 2025 target of 80 million), a 7.5% staking yield (5.2% higher than the industry average), and an 18% growth rate of on-chain daily transaction volume (currently 250,000 per day). Set a 12-month target price of $1.85 (with a potential increase of 137% compared to the current price of $0.78); This prediction refers to the case where the price of Polygon soared by 210% within 90 days after the technological upgrade in 2021. If Newton’s zk-Rollups are deployed as scheduled (the throughput is increased to 10,000 TPS), the efficiency will increase by 500% or the value will be pushed up by another 30%.
Regulatory risk constitutes a major suppressing variable – the European MiCA Act requires the protocol reserve ratio to be raised to 10%, increasing the annual compliance budget of the Newton protocol by 2 million US dollars (25% of annual revenue), which may depress prices by 15% in the short term, such as the profit contraction caused by a 35% increase in compliance costs for Coinbase in 2023. However, if the United States passes the security token exemption draft (with a 40% probability), it can reduce legal costs by 30% and push the depth of the exchange order book to recover from the peak of $600,000 to $1 million (the current bid-ask spread is 0.4%).
Strong momentum for ecosystem expansion: It is planned to double the number of integrated DApps to 50 by 2025 (currently 25). Historical data shows that each new top application (such as AAVe-like protocols) increases TVL by an average of 8%. Referring to the multiplier effect of a 300% increase in weekly trading volume after Uniswap V3 deployed Arbitrum. In addition, the annual token burn rate of 1.8% (deflationary pressure) and the target of institutional holdings increasing from 15% to 30%, on-chain data shows that every 10% of holdings transfer can reduce the circulating supply by 5%, forming a supply and demand gap to support the bull market logic.
The bullish basis of newton protocol price prediction lies in the optimization of the liquidity structure – the peak depth of centralized exchanges has reached 2 million US dollars (an increase of 150% compared to Q1 2023), and the leverage ratio of outstanding derivatives contracts is only 3 times (the industry safety threshold is 5 times). Significantly reduce the risk of liquidation falls; TokenInsight stress tests show that even if Bitcoin pulls back by 30% (referring to the historical average of the cycle after the halving), Newton’s maximum pullback is only 25% (better than the industry’s 35%), as its correlation with the BTC price is only 0.65.
Based on the Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations), there is a 70% probability that it will reach $1.90 by 2025. The core drivers include a 125 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (with a 68% probability), which can attract $30 billion in incremental funds into the crypto market. zk-Rollups reduces user costs to $0.03 (increases the frequency of micro and small transactions by 50%); However, the audit results of the smart contract need to be monitored (the vulnerability probability should be less than 0.05%). If the cross-chain bridge is deployed with a delay of more than 6 months, the predicted value needs to be reduced by 20%. The current market sentiment indicator (Santiment Greed Index 62) shows a neutral to bullish trend. It is recommended that investors allocate a position of no more than 12% to capture an annualized return of 18% and hedge against a short-term volatility risk of 15%.